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TRP T711-504GR PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF RE-ENTRY BREAK-UP ANALYSES AND DERIVED QUANTITIES EXPRO+

ESA Open Invitation to Tender AO9346
Open Date: 04/05/2018
Closing Date: 20/06/2018 13:00:00

Status: ISSUED
Reference Nr.: 18.112.03
Prog. Ref.: Technology Developme
Budget Ref.: E/0901-01 - Technology Developme
Special Prov.: AT+BE+CH+CZ+DE+DK+EE+ES+FI+FR+GB+GR+HU+IE+IT+LU+NL+NO+PL+PT+RO+SE+SI
Tender Type: C
Products: Ground Segment / Mission Operations / Mission Control / Flight Dynamics Systems and Mission Analysis
Techology Domains: Space Debris / Modelling and Risk Analysis / Debris and Meteoroid Environment Models
Establishment: ESOC
Directorate: Directorate of Operations
Department: Ground Systems Engineering Department
Division: Space Debris Office
Contract Officer: Roettger, Sabine
Industrial Policy Measure: N/A - Not apply
Last Update Date: 04/05/2018
Update Reason: Tender issue

During the last decade a multitude of tools and methods have been developed to analyses the break-up of space systems during the re-entry in the Earth's atmosphere. To protect the Earth population from elevated risk imposed by re-entries, guidelines and standardshave been proposed and implemented to limited the amount of pieces expected to reach ground during the re-entry. Studies have shown high levels of uncertainties associated with the usage of break-up analysis tools, and limited agreement among the different methods concerning the results. This implies difficulties in assessing the risk and meeting project requirements on risk mitigation. Several studies have addressed theoretical probabilistic methods to interpret results from break-up analysis and unify the results fromdifferent methods. Historically re-entry risk assessment has so far been largely procedural in the sense that a process is in placewhich defines which calculations need to be made and which can be omitted. Recently, the limitations of this approach w.r.t. physical phenomena and new spacecraft design paradigm as become apparent. As such the objectives of this activity are:·A systematic identification of uncertainties going into the physics and modelling of break-up and re-entry events. ·Critically assess and systematically identify the influence of the design for demise paradigm on risk assessment.·The construction of a mathematical frameworkto probabilistically assess the on-ground risk posed by re-entries.·Use the mathematical framework to assess if a process-based or full probabilistic methodology is best suited to provide risk assessment on a programmatic level.

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